Are the Spanish election results a good foretaste of what to expect in next year’s European elections?
Will the pro-Europeans come out on top? Will the extreme right be held at bay?
And as a result will the direction of policy remain broadly the same?
LP Brussels Director, Mark Watts, shares his analysis:
The failure of the PP and VOX to secure a majority is a strong indication that the hype, narrative and polling, that the extreme right is set to grow and the pro-European centre parties are set to be squeezed in the European Parliament, are false.
To some extent this is just a repeat of the 2019 forecasts by many pollsters, analysts and commentators, who also predicted doom for the EU. They got it seriously wrong then, with the pro-EU parties holding their ground in the elections, and continuing to dominate the European union institutions over the past four years.
Why is that? Because voters often use polls as proxy elections. A risk free chance to protest. In the real European election they invariably vote to advance their values. And their values, according to the most recent Eurobarometer (see link below), are progressive and pro-European, with strong and growing support for a Europe that takes the global lead on the major challenges of our times.
I know it’s not as exciting as predicating a democratic Armageddon, but I believe that, based on past trends, the Spanish result, and the regular Eurobarometer surveys, the new European Parliament will be roughly like the current one in terms of political composition. It’s true, we’ll see a massive turnover of MEPs, maybe in excess of 60%, but the pro-European groups will still come out on top, and the direction of policy travel will remain broadly the same.
Of course turnout will be also be a key factor. And none of this is any excuse for complacency in the face of the politics of hate. The narrative that there is a risk of the far right re-emerging in Europe may indeed help mobilise progressive and and pro-European voters, and indeed one day it may happen.
But let’s not cry wolf.
Is it not better to offer positive, progressive and pro-European policies, that offer hope?
Is that not more likely to inspire voters to turnout.
What do you think?
Eurobarometer link:
https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3052